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daring prediction from seth godin

seth godin‘s prediction for online advertising

“short version: corporations, politicians, non-profits and even individuals who overinvest in online will see the same spectacular bounce that companies saw from TV in the fifties and sixties.”

in a short ‘blurb’ statement, it looks reasonable … we’ll see

certainly, based upon the latest Pew survey (Pew), if 62% of adults are online (and that will increase, along with their time online increasing/tasks done online increasing) it makes even more sense – and, following other MarketingVOX links you find that broadband in the U.S. and U.K. is still rising (that will spur online activity and content of various types) – and, he is right that ‘change’ is an ugly animal that most all people fear….

the thing that makes me pause and question is, I searched MarketingVox for ‘media consumption’ and only found a Aug. 2 article stating “12 percent” for Britain (with an addition that this is ‘a situation much like the one in the U.S.’ – but no citation for source, other than Damian Burns). ok, maybe he read something that didn’t say ‘media consumption’ and those were his words — still, where’s the supporting evidence?

The ‘12% article’ is here and the search for media consumption on the MarketingVox site is that one.

observation: first, this is a minor problem re: godin’s blog post – but a good example, too – godin’s comments may well prove true, and his ‘numbers’ may well be true, too — however, when someone like seth godin, a very popular writer with a wide following, makes these kind of statements in his blog – a flock of ‘trackbacks’ occur – the word spreads – other ‘A-list’ bloggers pick up on it (see Jeff Jarvis – BuzzMachine) and the meme gets propogated. well, this is exactly the time for ‘sources’ to be ‘clearly defined’ … this is why blogs have a bad rep! (ok, just one reason) – and this is why you should ALWAYS be skeptical of statements – regardless of the author(s).

best plan of action, re: the blogs you read?

whenever you encounter something ‘absent reliable sources’ – think of them as brainstorming sessions – even when written by the most respected sources, like godin and jarvis – they are ‘their opinions’


  1. The 12% referred to by Damian Burns regarding to media consumption is a dire tc reference to the Freeserve ‘Fishbowl’ (2003) study findings